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Accordia Golf Trust

I guess this is probably why investing can be so dangerous and index investing may really be the best way to go. If you refer to my prior analysis on AGT , my worst case estimation was a 20% drop in distributable income for 2H FY17/18. While DPU for 3QFY17/18 at 1.43 cents was less than a 20% decline, the DPU for 4QFY17/18 has declined by more than 60% to 0.45 cents. In case, of my estimated DPU of 4.85cents SGD cents, DPU for AGT has fallen to 3.85 SGD cents. The decline was on the back of lower EBITDA, -322 JPY million (Q4FY17/18) compared to 12 JPY million (Q4FY16/17). There was also another $500 JPY million for capital investment, bringing distributable income from 1297 JPY million to 493 JPY million. It really is a year of double whammy for AGT. In Q2FY17/18, they were hit with a 300% surge in membership redemption. That drove Q2FY17/18 distributable income from 497 JPY million to -323 JYP million. Consequently, the dividend per unit for AGT has fallen to 3.85cen...
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Review of my history with Genting Singapore

Can't quite remember when I first bought Genting Singapore stocks. I remember subscribing for their rights so I must have owned it before 10 September 2009. And my records with my broker showed that I have traded the shares a couple of times in 2011 and 2013 and seemed to have made some decent profits. The hokkien has a saying "blind chicken peck the worms". I must have been a blind chicken from 2011 to 2013. My records showed that I was quite a trader then and actually did pretty okay! It could be age (getting older) or simply because now that I do not have a fixed regular income to offset any trading loss, I have become a lot more risk adverse. Hence I was quite surprised to see my trading history! The more I think about it, the more I believe this is a result of not having a fixed income from a job. Sigh. I have learned a hard lesson in that, maybe someday I will write a post on how it is important to appreciate a good paying job and just ignore whatever politics o...
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My Experiences with Bear Markets, Market Corrections and Panics

Even though I know that bear markets, market correction and panic are some the best times to buy stocks, I realized each time that it has happened, I have failed to maximize my opportunities.  Take for instance the GFC in 2008. I did one good thing by buying DBS at the low of $5+. And we did well on that after it issued a 2 for 1 rights call. I did not do any FA or TA on DBS, I just knew that it's a core economic function of Singapore, there is no way the government will let DBS fail. The mistake I made was selling it off too early after it hit $16+. Had I kept it all the way now, the returns would be a lot greater if I added in the dividends received. At that point, I did not understand of beauty of dividends in boosting your overall returns.  On looking back, what was worse was that I did not empty my war chest to capitalize on the GFC. I was certainly not financial savvy at all. In fact, I was sort of freaked out by the 50% or more crash in the prices of the stock ...
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Analysis of ComfortDelgro - Update 2

Based on the 3rd Quarter FY17 results, net profit decreased by ~ 8% Q-o-Q to 3.7cents.  Including the 0.04 special dividends of CabCharge Australia, 9MFY17 EPS is now 11.2cents. So if we estimate EPS of 3cents for 4QFY17, FY17 EPS will be 14.2 cents. This is just slightly lower than FY16 EPS of 14.72cents. Give 4QFY16 EPS of 3.3cents, if we assume another 8% loss, we will get about 3 cents for 4QFY17. But the final number may be potentially slightly higher cos of the new Downtown Line 3 that started operations in October. So we have about 2 months of income there.  At 14.2 cents, at PE of 13x (undervalue based on historical PE range), price should be about $1.846.  If all things remain, which means the one or more of the followings: Grab stagnated at pulling market share, higher revenue from bus and trains, and no exceptional gains,  we could expect future EPS to be about 0.9*14.72= 13.25 to 14.2-04=13.8.  Taking the lower conservativ...
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I just lost $4785

Ouch! It is really very painful to lose so much money. It has probably happened 1 or 2 times before. But those times I just shoved it under the rag and try to forget it. This time, I am forcing myself to write it down and hope that I will learn from it and never let it happen again! It was on Indoagri. I first got into this stock in April 2013. The stock has fallen from a high of $3 from in January 2011. I thought the stock would due for a rebound at $1.115. Then I average down at $0.88. Then I completely forgot about the stock until I looked at it again in January 2016 when it is at $0.44. I had been busy raising my born from Oct 2013 to around Jan 2016. Then in Nov 2016, I once again averaged down at $0.52 cents. Again hoping that it will recover to $1. Looking back, I am obviously an idiot. I had no idea this was a commodity stock. It had shot up to $3 because of the commodity bull cycle (Read Jim Roger's Hot Commodities to learn more). I thought if it can trade ...
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Analysis of Accordia Golf Trust

I first started to take note of Accordia Golf Trust in July 2017 as I tried to understand AK's portfolio. Based on his past posts, I note that AK first bought in AGT in 2014 at 74 cents and he subsequently added more at 51cents in 2015 when it plunged. On 14 Nov 2017, the share price of AGT had a sharp decline from a closing price of 76cents to close at 71 cents. This was on the back of news that the half-year dividend for FY17/18 from Jan-Jul has fallen 32.7% to SGD1.65cents compared to SGD2.45cents in 1HFY16/17. The management reported that the net income available for distribution for 3QFY17/18 was -323M (Yen) due to larger than expected redemption of membership fee. Speaking to their IR, I learned that: Redemption of the deposit means the member has cancelled their membership. But non-members can still play but at a higher play fee.The large redemption for FY17/18 was unexpected as the previous years’ redemption averaged about 20%. They think it could be because this bat...
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Analysis of QAF

On 10 Nov 2017, announced a 60% drop in net profit for 3Q17 compared to 2Q17. The main cause of drop was due to " lower selling prices experienced by Rivalea led to a significant drop in its Profit Before Taxation (“PBT”) from $10.0 million in 3Q 2016 to $0.7 million in 3Q 2017 , and is the main reason for the Group’s reduced profitability for 3Q 2017 compared against 3Q 2016 ".  So a quick search on Google lead me to Australian Pork Limited that said " Pig prices peaked in 2016 at an average of around $3.75 per kilogram carcase weight equivalent. From Christmas of that year, prices started to drop steeply and deeply. This caught industry by surprise as no one had predicted – through the data that was available – that this was going to occur. Average pig prices at the time of writing are signi cantly below $3.00 per kilogram and in many cases, producers are being asked by the market to part with their pigs at below cost of production. " So whi...
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