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Showing posts from December, 2017

Analysis of ComfortDelgro - Update 2

Based on the 3rd Quarter FY17 results, net profit decreased by ~ 8% Q-o-Q to 3.7cents.  Including the 0.04 special dividends of CabCharge Australia, 9MFY17 EPS is now 11.2cents. So if we estimate EPS of 3cents for 4QFY17, FY17 EPS will be 14.2 cents. This is just slightly lower than FY16 EPS of 14.72cents. Give 4QFY16 EPS of 3.3cents, if we assume another 8% loss, we will get about 3 cents for 4QFY17. But the final number may be potentially slightly higher cos of the new Downtown Line 3 that started operations in October. So we have about 2 months of income there.  At 14.2 cents, at PE of 13x (undervalue based on historical PE range), price should be about $1.846.  If all things remain, which means the one or more of the followings: Grab stagnated at pulling market share, higher revenue from bus and trains, and no exceptional gains,  we could expect future EPS to be about 0.9*14.72= 13.25 to 14.2-04=13.8.  Taking the lower conservativ...