InvestingRoo

Ouch! It is really very painful to lose so much money. It has probably happened 1 or 2 times before. But those times I just shoved it under the rag and try to forget it. This time, I am forcing myself to write it down and hope that I will learn from it and never let it happen again! It was on Indoagri. I first got into this stock in April 2013. The stock has fallen from a high of $3 from in January 2011. I thought the stock would due for a rebound at $1.115. Then I average down at $0.88. Then I completely forgot about the stock until I looked at it again in January 2016 when it is at $0.44. I had been busy raising my born from Oct 2013 to around Jan 2016. Then in Nov 2016, I once again averaged down at $0.52 cents. Again hoping that it will recover to $1. Looking back, I am obviously an idiot. I had no idea this was a commodity stock. It had shot up to $3 because of the commodity bull cycle (Read Jim Roger's Hot Commodities to learn more). I thought if it can trade ...

I first started to take note of Accordia Golf Trust in July 2017 as I tried to understand AK's portfolio. Based on his past posts, I note that AK first bought in AGT in 2014 at 74 cents and he subsequently added more at 51cents in 2015 when it plunged. On 14 Nov 2017, the share price of AGT had a sharp decline from a closing price of 76cents to close at 71 cents. This was on the back of news that the half-year dividend for FY17/18 from Jan-Jul has fallen 32.7% to SGD1.65cents compared to SGD2.45cents in 1HFY16/17. The management reported that the net income available for distribution for 3QFY17/18 was -323M (Yen) due to larger than expected redemption of membership fee. Speaking to their IR, I learned that: Redemption of the deposit means the member has cancelled their membership. But non-members can still play but at a higher play fee.The large redemption for FY17/18 was unexpected as the previous years’ redemption averaged about 20%. They think it could be because this bat...

On 10 Nov 2017, announced a 60% drop in net profit for 3Q17 compared to 2Q17. The main cause of drop was due to " lower selling prices experienced by Rivalea led to a significant drop in its Profit Before Taxation (“PBT”) from $10.0 million in 3Q 2016 to $0.7 million in 3Q 2017 , and is the main reason for the Group’s reduced profitability for 3Q 2017 compared against 3Q 2016 ".  So a quick search on Google lead me to Australian Pork Limited that said " Pig prices peaked in 2016 at an average of around $3.75 per kilogram carcase weight equivalent. From Christmas of that year, prices started to drop steeply and deeply. This caught industry by surprise as no one had predicted – through the data that was available – that this was going to occur. Average pig prices at the time of writing are signi cantly below $3.00 per kilogram and in many cases, producers are being asked by the market to part with their pigs at below cost of production. " So whi...

Gamestop (GME) was my first enthusiastic attempt at value investing. "Buy cheap company" (Low PE, not just price). When I bought it in January ( 27 Jan 2017), it was $24.32. Trading at a PE of 5x with dividend yield of 6%. I mean it's almost half of the high of $57 in Nov 2017. How much more can it fall? I had betted that this would be a new year of new gaming consoles. With Nintendo Switch and new Microsoft Xbox coming out. After buying the stock, it actually went up to $26 before crashing down to $20 and recovering to $25 again. I thought I was abiding by value-investing rule to not be affected by the daily market fluctuations. Aka, ignore Mr Market. The interesting thing is the stock price crashes at every earning call even if GME beats the earning estimates?! Also they were doing well with their diversification to Tech Toys and ATT reseller stores. When prices hit $18 in August. I am banking on the hope that the iPhone sales may turn things around. It reco...

ComfortDelgro (CDG) has fallen from the high of $3.20 in June 2015 to $1.955 in September 2017.  This is despite net profit increasing from $284M (2014), to $302M (2015) and $317M (2017) and dividends increasing from 8.25c (2014) to 9c (2015) to 10.3c (2016). Despite the entrance of Uber and Grab in 2013, revenue from the taxi segment has managed to increase from $1,284M (2014) to $1,327M (2015) to $1,341 (2016). In fact, the number of taxis under CDG actually increased between 2014 to 2016 and peaked at 17,143 in April 2016. Since 2017, we are starting to see actual profit decline from the taxi business. There were 16,976 taxis in January 2016, the number of taxis under CDG has declined to 15,556 in June 2017.  In September 2017, Grab and Uber launched aggressive promo to attract more drivers from CDG by offer attractive rental discounts of up to almost 50%. So we can expect the number of taxis under CDG to further decline. CDG's taxi revenue is derived mostly from rent...

This is a blog to keep me disciplined in my investment process. I am committed to doing a thorough analysis of potential investments and documenting my thoughts and analysis here to guide me to make better investment decisions. This is not a blog to tell you what to buy or invest in. But rather, I hope through my sharing, I can share my knowledge and learning about investments. I enjoy investing because I like to read and learn. My ideal job is one that pays me to read, learn and understand the world better. Why is it that some business are better than others? Why is it that some work have so much higher returns than others? What will be the key driver of economic progress of the world moving forward? How will the world look like 50 years down the road? I found it interesting that through reading books about investing like Jim Roger's Hot Commodities and Ruchir Sharma's Breakout nations, I get to learn about the things that I am interested in and also understand why cer...