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About

This is a blog to keep me disciplined in my investment process.

I am committed to doing a thorough analysis of potential investments and documenting my thoughts and analysis here to guide me to make better investment decisions.

This is not a blog to tell you what to buy or invest in. But rather, I hope through my sharing, I can share my knowledge and learning about investments.

I enjoy investing because I like to read and learn. My ideal job is one that pays me to read, learn and understand the world better. Why is it that some business are better than others? Why is it that some work have so much higher returns than others? What will be the key driver of economic progress of the world moving forward? How will the world look like 50 years down the road?

I found it interesting that through reading books about investing like Jim Roger's Hot Commodities and Ruchir Sharma's Breakout nations, I get to learn about the things that I am interested in and also understand why certain stocks or class of investment have done well in the past. Through investing, I hope to make my dream of being paid doing what I love come through.

I love to learn. If you could be so generous as to share your investing wisdom and nuggets with me and even to point out where my thinking needs to be further refined, I will be most grateful to you!

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Analysis of ComfortDelgro - Update 2

Based on the 3rd Quarter FY17 results, net profit decreased by ~ 8% Q-o-Q to 3.7cents.  Including the 0.04 special dividends of CabCharge Australia, 9MFY17 EPS is now 11.2cents. So if we estimate EPS of 3cents for 4QFY17, FY17 EPS will be 14.2 cents. This is just slightly lower than FY16 EPS of 14.72cents. Give 4QFY16 EPS of 3.3cents, if we assume another 8% loss, we will get about 3 cents for 4QFY17. But the final number may be potentially slightly higher cos of the new Downtown Line 3 that started operations in October. So we have about 2 months of income there.  At 14.2 cents, at PE of 13x (undervalue based on historical PE range), price should be about $1.846.  If all things remain, which means the one or more of the followings: Grab stagnated at pulling market share, higher revenue from bus and trains, and no exceptional gains,  we could expect future EPS to be about 0.9*14.72= 13.25 to 14.2-04=13.8.  Taking the lower conservativ...

Review of my history with Genting Singapore

Can't quite remember when I first bought Genting Singapore stocks. I remember subscribing for their rights so I must have owned it before 10 September 2009. And my records with my broker showed that I have traded the shares a couple of times in 2011 and 2013 and seemed to have made some decent profits. The hokkien has a saying "blind chicken peck the worms". I must have been a blind chicken from 2011 to 2013. My records showed that I was quite a trader then and actually did pretty okay! It could be age (getting older) or simply because now that I do not have a fixed regular income to offset any trading loss, I have become a lot more risk adverse. Hence I was quite surprised to see my trading history! The more I think about it, the more I believe this is a result of not having a fixed income from a job. Sigh. I have learned a hard lesson in that, maybe someday I will write a post on how it is important to appreciate a good paying job and just ignore whatever politics o...

My Experiences with Bear Markets, Market Corrections and Panics

Even though I know that bear markets, market correction and panic are some the best times to buy stocks, I realized each time that it has happened, I have failed to maximize my opportunities.  Take for instance the GFC in 2008. I did one good thing by buying DBS at the low of $5+. And we did well on that after it issued a 2 for 1 rights call. I did not do any FA or TA on DBS, I just knew that it's a core economic function of Singapore, there is no way the government will let DBS fail. The mistake I made was selling it off too early after it hit $16+. Had I kept it all the way now, the returns would be a lot greater if I added in the dividends received. At that point, I did not understand of beauty of dividends in boosting your overall returns.  On looking back, what was worse was that I did not empty my war chest to capitalize on the GFC. I was certainly not financial savvy at all. In fact, I was sort of freaked out by the 50% or more crash in the prices of the stock ...